Germany Tom Krebs University of Mannheim Martin Scheffel ETH Zuerich Paper / Germany∗ Tom Krebs University of Mannheim† Martin Scheffel ETH Zuerich‡ November / /
International Monetary Fund Washington / German government / Germany Tom Krebs University of Mannheim Martin Scheffel ETH Zuerich Paper / Executive Board / Department of Economics / International Monetary Fund / German National Science Foundation / OECD / Germany∗ Tom Krebs University of Mannheim† Martin Scheffel ETH Zuerich‡ / /